Org income drop in 2012?

[RolandRB]

I am thinking that there will be a catastrophic drop in income from the Orgs in 2012 as people boycott Flag and don't do much in their local Orgs and although it might pick up in 2013 then 2012 is going to be a difficult year just to keep the advanced Orgs and the Ideal Orgs running. Has anyone got any inside information on this?

[Freeminds]

The orgs have always been run on a shoestring, doing things on the cheap or not at all. Failing to pay staff their $50 per week. Failing even to maintain a stock of toilet paper. Failing to pay their utility bills for so long that they actually end up paying additional fees when they get a disconnection visit, and so on...

The funny thing is, the orgs have survived for so many years on the knife-edge of bankruptcy that they won't actually recognise that there is a problem. We've already seen staff having to sit in their cars because they can't afford to heat their building, or using cellphones because the telephone company has disconnected their land lines.

Doing things on the cheap is 100% standard Hubbard tech. It was LRH himself who wrote the policy about never paying bills promptly. In one sense it makes the business quite robust, because it maintains liquid cash reserves for as long as humanly (thetanly?) possible. In another sense, it does a lot of harm to Scientology's veneer of prosperity and respectability; too many creditors have had to take them to court, and too many of them refuse to do business with the cult ever again. Word gets around! Scientology orgs are on a 'cash in advance' basis with most businesses in their neighbourhoods, now.

Any business that's on the skids has to cut back on the luxuries, and few businesses have ever been as thoroughly devoid of comfort or luxury as the customer-facing orgs of the Scientology cult. That keeps them staggering on for quite a long time, but only through emergency donations from long-time Scientology victims. With virtually no 'raw meat' to become the donors of the future, you have to wonder how long the charade can continue.

This doesn't pose a problem for the Midget, of course. At least, not in the short term. He's sitting on all the cash that was sent up-lines in previous years, although that seems to be reserved for gifts for celebrities, and out-of-court settlements.

[Terril park]

The orgs have always been run on a shoestring, doing things on the cheap or not at all. Failing to pay staff their $50 per week. Failing even to maintain a stock of toilet paper. Failing to pay their utility bills for so long that they actually end up paying additional fees when they get a disconnection visit, and so on...

The funny thing is, the orgs have survived for so many years on the knife-edge of bankruptcy that they won't actually recognise that there is a problem. We've already seen staff having to sit in their cars because they can't afford to heat their building, or using cellphones because the telephone company has disconnected their land lines.

Doing things on the cheap is 100% standard Hubbard tech. It was LRH himself who wrote the policy about never paying bills promptly. In one sense it makes the business quite robust, because it maintains liquid cash reserves for as long as humanly (thetanly?) possible. In another sense, it does a lot of harm to Scientology's veneer of prosperity and respectability; too many creditors have had to take them to court, and too many of them refuse to do business with the cult ever again. Word gets around! Scientology orgs are on a 'cash in advance' basis with most businesses in their neighbourhoods, now.

Any business that's on the skids has to cut back on the luxuries, and few businesses have ever been as thoroughly devoid of comfort or luxury as the customer-facing orgs of the Scientology cult. That keeps them staggering on for quite a long time, but only through emergency donations from long-time Scientology victims. With virtually no 'raw meat' to become the donors of the future, you have to wonder how long the charade can continue.

This doesn't pose a problem for the Midget, of course. At least, not in the short term. He's sitting on all the cash that was sent up-lines in previous years, although that seems to be reserved for gifts for celebrities, and out-of-court settlements.

Some years ago the data chief [ Ms Woodward?] came out and reported that cash/ bills for the entire class V network had crossed [= insolvent] in very roughly 2003. In 2001 the ARIS survey had 54,000 scientologists in the US. By 2008 this was 25,000. Note there is a + or - error of 20,000. In 2008 anons started protesting, 2009 Marty started his blog, 2012 Debby Cook's mail sent out. So do the math

Note that Marty or Mike has commented that the only reason for Idle Orgs
is so that DM can give some good stats/news at events. Sounds plausible to me.

[GoNuclear]

I suspect that to Slappy Dave, running the orgs is just a pain in the ass, something that has to be done to maintain some sort of veneer to keep up the fund raising operation. Also, from everything I have read here and elsewhere on the web, from his point of view, the Cof$ would be perfect if there were absolutely no other people involved, it was all him. Bottom line ... I suspect that his goal is to rid Cof$ of anybody that could possibly challenge his sole claim on the Sea Ogre Reserves. He maintains a tiny veneer of churchiness to maintain tax exempt status, and does a kewl 50% per year or so return on investment on the reserve accounts, and doesn't have to bother with services or maintaining a big facade, etc. Cof$ goes into Christian Science Reading Room mode with just a handful of ancient brainwashed followers.

Pete

[Auditor's Toad]

I suspect that to Slappy Dave, running the orgs is just a pain in the ass, something that has to be done to maintain some sort of veneer to keep up the fund raising operation. Also, from everything I have read here and elsewhere on the web, from his point of view, the Cof$ would be perfect if there were absolutely no other people involved, it was all him. Bottom line ... I suspect that his goal is to rid Cof$ of anybody that could possibly challenge his sole claim on the Sea Ogre Reserves. He maintains a tiny veneer of churchiness to maintain tax exempt status, and does a kewl 50% per year or so return on investment on the reserve accounts, and doesn't have to bother with services or maintaining a big facade, etc. Cof$ goes into Christian Science Reading Room mode with just a handful of ancient brainwashed followers.

Pete

Could you please explain how there is a 50% per year ROI on reserve accounts ?

[GoNuclear]

Could you please explain how there is a 50% per year ROI on reserve accounts ?

With 1.5 billion dollars or therabouts, which is a credible figure for Sea Org reserves, there are all sorts of opportunities not available to a guy who might have, say, 40 or 50 thousand dollars to invest for retirement. These strategies are relatively safe, and, made safer still by being big enough to diversify. In equities, for instance, there would be the strategies of dividend capture, also purchasing and holding blue chip stocks and selling out of the money call options. There are commodity plays, leveraged energy deals, bond options, etc. That kind of money can buy the finest MBA types to figure out the best strategies and investments as well. 1.5 billion dollar accounts don't just go into CD's or savings or money market accounts and sit there making 2% annually. A 50% ROI would be conservative. Furthermore, inflation is a lot higher than the official pronouncements from Washington, and you HAVE to make that kind of return to get anywhere in a reasonable time frame.

Pete

[Freeminds]

I don't doubt that the rich get richer. We're seen that across the board, to an unprecedented degree in the last twenty years or so. I would dispute a return of 50%, however. Remember, that diversified portfolio cuts both ways; for every time you buy shares in something that goes straight up and vertical, like Google, there'd be an equivalent that failed to deliver, such as the dismal Facebook. Still, even if all you got was fifteen percent or something, that's not to be sneezed at.

I don't doubt that David Miscavige has an awful lot of money. Scientology is often described as a "billion dollar cult" and with good reason -- and you'd only need to squeeze $20,000 from each of around 50,000 victims to get that first thousand million dollars. We know that Scientology had that number of adherents at its zenith, and we know that a lot of members have handed over the proceeds of the sale of their house, plus their savings. We know that Scientology's expenses for what it sells are virtually nil. It would be bizarre if Scientology wasn't rolling in cash.

But.

To make that money work for you, you need a fund manager. For that much money, you'd employ somebody (or a team) full-time. And let's be honest: no normal person would want to employ a Scientologist in that role. Is that a job for an arrogant 'OT' whackjob who thinks he or she can "postulate" things, and who believes that failures can be attributed to the presence of an "SP"?

No: for your fund manager, you'd want somebody rational. And yet... could a person like David Miscavige trust a non-Scientologist with Scientology's (or more accurately, his) money? No, because he's not rational.

I think Miscavige is unlikely to be making his money work for him, to any great degree. Remember, he's still seeing an income, kicked uplines from all the orgs, despite never having invested in those orgs. It's pure profit. Sure, his pile is growing more slowly than it used to, but it's still growing: and tax-free. And there's a growing real estate portfolio, too. Not completed buildings, in many cases, and not housing successful businesses... but buildings that he can sell, later, for which he paid not a cent. It doesn't matter if they get fitted out tastelessly or never get finished - the next owner would remodel them anyway - nor if they don't actually have permission to open: the building is worth money.

But David Miscavige, alcoholic, paranoiac and violent micro-manager, playing the stock market? I can't see that happening. If he tried it would overwhelm him, but I can't see him trusting somebody else with the job.

[RolandRB]

How do the Class V Orgs and Avanced Orgs keep going unless there is real money flowing in? Does Flag income pay for the outer Orgs? Are the outer Orgs paying for Flag? Are IAS funds being used to pay Org utility bills?

I can understand the idea about the Class V Orgs being effectively insolvent but I think it is more complicated than that. Sure, they can't sell enough services to cover their staff training but that does not mean it has to stop. It is just that staff will get paid peanuts for ten years until things pick up again.

I am keen to know if they make enough income either from the Orgs or Flag to cover running costs and if not then the source of that money. It is surely not the Sea Org reserves.

[Idle Morgue]

Empty buildings. No new public for years! Staff being forced to pay for auditing cuz there are no new PC's. 1 Clear in the Org in the past 3 years! 1 Oatee Ate in the past 3 years. Oatee Ate's are not coming around or talking to anyone! 1 Oatee joined staff in the past 5 years!

Does this sound like "flourishing and prospering"? The staff will tell you there is "expansion by EPIC PROPORTIONS but that is Slappy McSavages circuit they are running. How else can they justify rat hole apartments, ram en noodles, shit cars, no money, cleaning houses at nights after putting in 12 hours of running in circles doing nothing and creating nothing because there is no one coming in, empty buildings, empty events, COPE-COPE-COPE!

Definition of EXPANSION: 6. A period of increased economic or business activity.

DM'S definition: Amount of money extorted from everyone for my bank account.


Straight up and vertical...of parishioner's filing bankruptcy! Lies told to control others, Suicides, deaths from cancer, blown PC's, blown students, psychotic breaks! That is the VFP in Scientology today!

[Freeminds]

We don't need to tell them their life is shit. They already know that. We don't need to tell them that their orgs are failing. They already know that.

I suppose that what most of the remaining Scientology staff need is an alternative. An alternative that gets them away from the lies and allows them to devote some of that energy and dedication to their own wellbeing and that of their families. And, of course, having started to make a life of their own, to actually keep what they've earned. This means not being hit for (bogus, unenforceable) Freeloader debt, not being suckered into buying sets of books they don't need, not being hit up for IAS donations, and not permitting WISE to get its hooks into them...

The more the orgs fail, the more desperate the appeals for cash will become. It's not about people anymore; it's purely about the money. Falling membership can be compensated for by extracting more money from each remaining person... but it's going to get worse and worse as time goes on.

Who'd want to be in that madhouse?

BTW, its' Thursday tomorrow...