Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 36

Thread: Scientology stats are UP! :)

  1. #1
    Big List researcher
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    1,580

    Default Scientology stats are UP! :)

    On WWP, an anon is evaluating the speed in which people are leaving COS (to become Indie or leave altogether). He or she is using the big list as a source.

    First result [see WWP for details]:
    Quote Originally Posted by Anon on WWP
    I was just curious if this is visible and how the current exit wave compares to that in the 80ies.
    I started to make a table where the year of exit / SP declare / switch to Indie status took place. For a very rough first 58 ex's, the data show a peak mid 80ies and a rising flank of a peak at least double the size which is ongoing.
    Here are the data, I will update it when I have more.
    https://whyweprotest.net/community/t...0#post-2388356

    Second result [again see WWP for details]:
    Quote Originally Posted by Anon on WWP
    Analysed nearly 100 people now, and the picture emerging is:
    1. +- constant exit rate 1978-2003 (drop around 1995)
    2. Average exit rate doubles 2003-2007
    3. Average exit rate doubles again 2008-2010
    -> The ongoing exit wave is at least 4 times more intense than the average of 1978-2003.
    https://whyweprotest.net/community/t...0#post-2388801

    The Big List Graphs and Analysis:
    http://whyweprotest.net/threads/the-...alysis.120569/

  2. #2
    Big List researcher
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    1,580

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)

    New step in analysis after 133:

    https://whyweprotest.net/community/t...0#post-2388956

    For the updated table 133 ex's data were used (all ways of exiting except "body drop").
    You have to apply plot-it-yourself, the last row is a running average with highest weight in the center of a 5-year range.
    The values for the last years are too low, probably due to delay in going public and perhaps for other reasons.
    Sorry for messing this thread up, I'll try to put it in fewer lines next time.

    1974 1
    1975 0
    1976 2 1.375
    1977 2 1.8125
    1978 1 2.3125
    1979 5 2.5
    1980 1 1.8125
    1981 0 1.5
    1982 2 2.6875
    1983 7 3.625
    1984 2 2.75
    1985 0 1.625
    1986 2 1.625
    1987 3 1.875
    1988 0 1.9375
    1989 4 2
    1990 1 1.875
    1991 1 2
    1992 4 2.3125
    1993 2 2
    1994 0 1.5625
    1995 3 1.5625
    1996 1 1.5625
    1997 1 1.8125
    1998 3 2.625
    1999 4 3.25
    2000 3 3.25
    2001 3 2.9375
    2002 3 2.5
    2003 1 2.125
    2004 3 2.125
    2005 1 2.6875
    2006 5 3.6875
    2007 4 4.875
    2008 6 6.6875
    2009 9 9.5625
    2010 14 12.1875
    2011 15
    2012 9
    2013 5

  3. Thanks Type4_PTS, oneonewasaracecar, dchoiceisalwaysrs says "thank you" for this post
    Likes dchoiceisalwaysrs liked this post
  4. #3
    Gold Meritorious Patron Idle Morgue's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    3,538

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)

    Quote Originally Posted by TrevAnon View Post
    On WWP, an anon is evaluating the speed in which people are leaving COS (to become Indie or leave altogether). He or she is using the big list as a source.

    First result [see WWP for details]:

    https://whyweprotest.net/community/t...0#post-2388356

    Second result [again see WWP for details]:

    https://whyweprotest.net/community/t...0#post-2388801
    I have checked the lists and there are SP's and people OUT that are not on the list. I have a whole bunch of names I can add to the list - including mind and my family!!

  5. Thanks Type4_PTS, La La Lou Lou says "thank you" for this post
    Likes Magoo, Type4_PTS, La La Lou Lou liked this post
  6. #4
    Big List researcher
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    1,580

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)

    Quote Originally Posted by Idle Morgue View Post
    I have checked the lists and there are SP's and people OUT that are not on the list. I have a whole bunch of names I can add to the list - including mind and my family!!
    When there is (1) proof someone was in, and (2) he or she has spoken out critically about the church, I'd be glad to read about it in a post here. I'd be happy to forward this to the WWP-thread about the big list, where Anonymous will decide if it is good enough to be included.

    So go ahead, make my day.

    Srsly though: I know lots of people more left the cult silently (for whatever reason) and simply never looked back. For correct stats, these of course also have to be counted. But by definition Anonymous doesn't know about them or at least doesn't have proof. You know what we say: DOX or STFU / GTFO.

  7. #5

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)

    Quote Originally Posted by TrevAnon View Post
    When there is (1) proof someone was in, and (2) he or she has spoken out critically about the church, I'd be glad to read about it in a post here. I'd be happy to forward this to the WWP-thread about the big list, where Anonymous will decide if it is good enough to be included.

    So go ahead, make my day.

    Srsly though: I know lots of people more left the cult silently (for whatever reason) and simply never looked back. For correct stats, these of course also have to be counted. But by definition Anonymous doesn't know about them or at least doesn't have proof. You know what we say: DOX or STFU / GTFO.
    So it's like someone we know and trust told us there is a lovely big cake in the cupboard and it's really really delicious, but we want to intensify our cravings and therefore the pleasure we will have when we eat it, so we say "you kids haven't got any docs so we are not factoring in the cake data".
    Lips smacking.
    I was in a Space Alien Cult called Scientology. Scientology: the prison of belief.

  8. LOL! Type4_PTS, eldritch cuckoo, TrevAnon, freethinker laughed at this post
  9. #6
    Big List researcher
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    1,580

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous on WWP
    This is my final chart:

    A bit of statistical babbling ...

    Orange / red data points and line:

    • based on 270 individual exit years from the big list, summed up for each year between 1969 and 2013
    • randomly distributed over alphabetical order, with exeption of names beginning with A,B,Y,Z (used all available) and most of W
    • for all 360 names beginning with A,B,Y,Z (+most of W), 143 exit years could be found = 39% => out of 2139 individuals, 850 exit years could be determined; so I did one third of what is possible
    • chart data scaled to a total 2139 => the data show what we expect if all exit years would be known (estimated from 270 exit years = 12.6% of data)
    • not scaled for unknown ratio of public : "quiet" exits, so no total exit rates here!
    • red line is a 5-month running average with weights 1 - 4 - 6 - 4 -1


    Green line:
    • based on 232 exit years where also membership time was known
    • membership time averaged for 5-year bins (1975-79, 1980-85 ...); s.dev. ranges from 3 to 12 years
    • slope is nearly zero for 80ies to mid 90ies
    • slope is nearly 1.0 for mid 90ies until today


    Notes:

    • 2 exit waves of 4-5 years duration: First around 1983, second smaller around 2000
    • constant rate of 120 public exits per year since 1980, no drop around 1995
    • membership time at exit remained constant in 80ies and early 90ies => people just leave after 10 years,which would be a hint to "individual problems" occuring after 10 years (running out of $$$, ...)
    • membership time at exit increases with time since 1995 => people of all ages and entry times leave, would be a hint to a "systematic problem" of Co$
    • Current exit wave should peak at least at 900, being 3-fold more massive than the wave around 1983
    • Strangest thing is missing data for late 2012 and for 2013: Only total orgs/missions (Israel, South Africa) and some individuals left publicly. Some process seems to prevent exits of Co$ members become known in the public / www. From the chart it seems very unlikely the numbers drop from 1200 to 200 within a year. Obviously, people find support / relieve elsewhere than by news interviews or posting in open blogs or forums. For some reason they don't need such a big "declaration" of independence or freedom any more. Or do we just not find them?

    I dont't know how to put the graph in. Could someone more computer savvy try? Thanks

    https://whyweprotest.net/community/t...1#post-2391661

  10. Thanks Type4_PTS, JBWriter says "thank you" for this post
  11. #7
    Patron with Honors SignPost's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    111

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)


  12. Thanks eldritch cuckoo, Leland, He-man, JBWriter, Type4_PTS and 4 others says "thank you" for this post
    Likes Type4_PTS, TrevAnon, AnonKat liked this post
    LOL! AnonKat laughed at this post
  13. #8

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)

    .
    .
    I read on a poster up on Tony Ortega's site, that in Britain there are more staff going up the bridge than at any other time. I wonder why.
    I was in a Space Alien Cult called Scientology. Scientology: the prison of belief.

  14. Thanks oneonewasaracecar says "thank you" for this post
  15. #9
    Big List researcher
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    1,580

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)

    An update on WWP was posted.

    http://whyweprotest.net/threads/big-...9#post-2482146

    I'd be thankful if someone could copy the two images in the original post here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ex it on WWP
    My statistics of exit years reached 500 Ex-Co$ members today.

    I plotted "years in at exit" versus "exit year". Color coded are number of individuals having the same years in, i.e. the brighter the square is, the more people left with the number of years in. The following graph intends to show in more detail what the green line in the other graph showed (increasing average of years in over the last decades). Clusters of bright squares would indicate a group of people recruited at about the same year leaving 'together'

    Note the difference before and after 2011, where more long-term Co$ members chose to exit in 2012 and 2013. This is reflected in the following accumulation of data over 3 (2009-2011) and 2 years (2012-2013) where 88 and 72 exits where registered, respectively. The number of individuals were accumulated in 5 year bins and scaled to 100 (otherwise the blue graph would be "higher" compared to the red because of 88 vs 72).

    What do we learn from this?

    Between 2009 and 2011 a high number of Co$ members leaving had been in for about 22 years. This shifted dramatically to around 40 years "in" from 2012 on. The few individuals leaving in 2014 seem to be consistent with that observation.

    The difference of 18 years between the to groups might reflect the distance to the next generation, i.e. it could be kids leaving first, then (together with Debbie Cooks Mail?) followed by their parents. The larger peak integral of the red curve would support this, since people tend to have two parents. However, this is pure speculation.

    A different explanation would be, older individuals think less critical about their belief system, taking the decision later.

    Both has to be taken with caution, since it is not clear if "Years in" reflects age.

    And a last thing. In the first graph, the cluster of long-term members leaving in 2012 were recruited at about the same time as the wave of people leaving around 1983. Together with the high constant background leaving rate since the interent age, I think this is a sign of terminal fail of Co$. Could explain the low exit count in 2014 - there is hardly a person left to leave the cult.
    Emphasis at the end mine.

  16. Likes Type4_PTS liked this post
  17. #10

    Default Re: Scientology stats are UP! :)


    "Of course, now the worst kind of a trap of all, of course, i...is...is a...a beautiful woman. Uh...- that's a theta trap we all know. That this...that this is the worst type, the most deadly, but uh...again that's just a trap."

    PDC-9: Anatomy of Processing - Energy Phenomena/Sensation
    L. Ron Hubbard

    "Jesus Christ was liberal and lefty." ~ La La Lou Lou

  18. Thanks eldritch cuckoo, Enthetan, TrevAnon says "thank you" for this post
    Likes TrevAnon liked this post
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. What are the stats of the Church of Scientology these days?
    By Boojuum in forum General Scientology Discussion
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 24th May 2013, 02:21 AM
  2. Here is the Scoop ~ Scientology Stats Straight Down and Horizontal!
    By Idle Morgue in forum Evaluating and Criticising Scientology
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 21st September 2012, 05:01 AM
  3. Scientology Materials/Paraphernalia - eBay/Amazon Stats.
    By Stat in forum General Scientology Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 25th February 2012, 08:23 AM
  4. Sucky Scientology Stats
    By HelluvaHoax! in forum General Scientology Discussion
    Replies: 36
    Last Post: 14th August 2011, 12:38 AM
  5. Falling faster than scientology stats.
    By skydog in forum General Scientology Discussion
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 11th January 2010, 09:07 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •