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Thread: Ten years after…

  1. #51
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    Default Re: Ten years after…

    Quote Originally Posted by Enthetan View Post
    The energy for quakes comes from sections of the earth's crust (plates) shifting by each other. When they become locked together, the energy builds until it's enough to break whatever had them locked together.

    If fracking results in a large number of small quakes, instead of letting things build up for one big one, wouldn't that be a good thing?
    Yes and no. If the smaller swarm quakes merely released pressure, and that was all it did to the crust, fine. But swarm quakes can potentially also add extra pressure to larger faults.

    Generally swarming does not activate larger events however there is not sufficient evidence that it can't. Recently we had a fairly significant swarming event in the middle of the Nth Island. Hundreds of tiny earthquakes, every few minutes, that went on for a couple of weeks. The risk with an event like this one is that it can trigger something else. While it is thought to be a low risk, it is one of the reasons our scientists watched this swarming event very closely to study how it behaved.

    When the 7.8 hit (Kaikoura, Nov, 2016) , the energy released from that traveled a huge distance (nearly the entire length of NZ). This activated some slow-slips on the two tectonic plates that NZ sits on. That increased pressure on other fault-lines. Our scientists were worried, in a trained calm sort of way. So we know that the energy transfers in ways we are still learning about. The 7.8 event released huge energy and this gave scientists a lot to play with and learn from (the upside of a huge quake). The fact is there is still a lot to learn about seismic activity and its potential risks to humans.

    I do not think it is wise to categorically state, in black and white terms, that fracking is without risks to upsetting pressure on surrounding fault-lines. Even with reasonably good geology info of a region, there is potential risk of disturbing something. It is a highly contentious issue. It is also fraught with large economic issues/complications which can become an insane driving force.

    I tend to think about fracking a bit like engineers look at zero-fault operations. You can plan for every possible outcome, push the parameters way out in an attempt to take into account zillions of variables. But there is always potentially going to be a pesky anomaly that blows the project sky-high.

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  3. #52
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    Default Re: Ten years after…

    Quote Originally Posted by Enthetan View Post
    The energy for quakes comes from sections of the earth's crust (plates) shifting by each other. When they become locked together, the energy builds until it's enough to break whatever had them locked together.

    If fracking results in a large number of small quakes, instead of letting things build up for one big one, wouldn't that be a good thing?
    Depends. It could be an unintended benefit or not. Depends where something or someone is standing when the 'little' or big one hit.

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  5. #53

    Default Re: Ten years after…


    An informative documentary on fracking called Split Estate came out in about 2009. Split estate is when the home/land owners don't own the mineral rights so big oil companies snatch them up resulting in tragic consequences for the people living next to the fracking operations. I saw the entire documentary on PBS for free but if anyone is inclined to buy a DVD it's well worth watching. Keep in mind the DVD's are region 1 only (U.S. & Canada) unless you own a multi-region blu ray/dvd player.
    Last edited by Free Being Me; 14th May 2017 at 06:09 AM.
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  7. #54
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    Default Re: Ten years after…

    it's the waste water they inject that is the problem:
    Thanks To Fracking, Earthquake Hazards In Parts Of Oklahoma Now Comparable To California
    A magnitude 5.6 earthquake shook Oklahoma on Saturday, tied for the strongest quake ever recorded in the state. Odds are it was triggered by fracking operations, specifically the subsurface injection of fracking wastewater and produced waters in general, even from non-fracking operations.

    There is a connection between fracking and earthquakes in the central and eastern United States (Figure 1). But the earthquakes are not a result of fracking itself. They mostly result from the injection of fracking wastewater and other waste and production water, even from non-fracking wells, at depths well-below the fracking horizon. The larger the volumes of water injected into the subsurface, the larger the earthquakes can be.

    The United States Geological Survey just produced a seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the central and eastern United States that includes both induced and natural earthquakes. While almost all of the fracking-induced or triggered earthquakes are small -- less than magnitude 3, which can’t be felt by most people -- enough are above 3 that the USGS predicted a 5% to 17% chance of significant damage to homes and structures in just the year 2016 for areas of north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas where fracking occurs. Presumably, this will continue each year as long as fracking continues close to the present rate.

    In cases when injection of water induces earthquakes of larger magnitudes, the earthquakes are most likely the result of reactivation of nearby pre-existing faults by upsetting the subsurface pressure regimes that keep the fault closed.
    A similar, but reversed, situation has occurred in southern California. Work by Dr. Kerry Sieh in the 1970s showed that over the last 15,000 years, great earthquakes (M>8) on the southern portion of the San Andreas fault occurred in a regular manner, easily dated to within about ±5 years. The time period varied in a regular and reproducible way. The last great earthquake occurred in 1857, and the work showed that the next “Big One” should have been in 1947.

    But we are still waiting for it. Beginning at about 1900, extensive drilling for oil occurred in the Los Angeles Basin and surroundings. At the same time, the population began to rapidly grow and we began extracting groundwater at an amazing rate. We extracted so much oil and water that we completely changed the subsurface dynamics of the San Andreas fault system and rendered useless our knowledge of the previous earthquake frequency. We now have no idea when the “Big One” will occur. Or how big it will be, considering that we have locked it up tighter than it ever was.
    I think this last is bogus - the San Andreas fault is about 800 miles long and the fracking is in the la basin. The fault is more north than through the basin itself. Not to down play the result of a big quake - I don't think fracking is mitigating the possibility of a large quake on the fault line.

    More at link:

    by James Conca Forbes Contributor

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco.../#4c9c454f6d68





    !!!! - I'll be - that's the source of Miscavage's 47X graph !!!! What a find.
    Last edited by Mimsey Borogrove; 14th May 2017 at 06:58 AM.

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    Default Gary Scott

    Whoa! Here's Gary.

    Gary Scott was the extraordinary Producer of the documentary I participated in back in 2009. I spent many hours on the phone with him, bashing our way through the details of my interview and also the legal drama the cult threw at me and Gibson Group (production company).

    I've never seen this interview before this morning.

    He speaks briefly about the cult documentary starting at 9:22.

    My transcript:
    "The most stressful one I've done recently was How to Spot a Cult for TV3, where, you know, you're dealing with people who have; a) been through traumatic experiences and; b) you've got some quite strong enemies who don't really like what you're doing, to wit scientology. So, you know, that was quite involving."



    Thank you Gary. For your perseverance, your patience, your kindness, your stunning intelligence and for having such a strong awesome team around you. xxx


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  11. #56
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    Default Digital libraries rock!

    What an interesting world. Ya gotta love digital libraries and old books. I'm reading a book written by a princess. Once upon a time her and her prince owned a house called Saint Hill Manor in Sussex, England.

    How very cool living in the 21st century and having access to all this information from one's living room.


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