Scientology stats are UP! :)

Discussion in 'General Scientology Discussion' started by TrevAnon, Nov 25, 2013.

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  1. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    On WWP, an anon is evaluating the speed in which people are leaving COS (to become Indie or leave altogether). He or she is using the big list as a source.

    First result [see WWP for details]:

    Second result [again see WWP for details]:

    The Big List Graphs and Analysis:
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 6, 2014
  2. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    New step in analysis after 133:

    For the updated table 133 ex's data were used (all ways of exiting except "body drop").
    You have to apply plot-it-yourself, the last row is a running average with highest weight in the center of a 5-year range.
    The values for the last years are too low, probably due to delay in going public and perhaps for other reasons.
    Sorry for messing this thread up, I'll try to put it in fewer lines next time.

    1974 1
    1975 0
    1976 2 1.375
    1977 2 1.8125
    1978 1 2.3125
    1979 5 2.5
    1980 1 1.8125
    1981 0 1.5
    1982 2 2.6875
    1983 7 3.625
    1984 2 2.75
    1985 0 1.625
    1986 2 1.625
    1987 3 1.875
    1988 0 1.9375
    1989 4 2
    1990 1 1.875
    1991 1 2
    1992 4 2.3125
    1993 2 2
    1994 0 1.5625
    1995 3 1.5625
    1996 1 1.5625
    1997 1 1.8125
    1998 3 2.625
    1999 4 3.25
    2000 3 3.25
    2001 3 2.9375
    2002 3 2.5
    2003 1 2.125
    2004 3 2.125
    2005 1 2.6875
    2006 5 3.6875
    2007 4 4.875
    2008 6 6.6875
    2009 9 9.5625
    2010 14 12.1875
    2011 15
    2012 9
    2013 5
  3. Idle Morgue

    Idle Morgue Gold Meritorious Patron

    I have checked the lists and there are SP's and people OUT that are not on the list. I have a whole bunch of names I can add to the list - including mind and my family!! :coolwink:
  4. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    When there is (1) proof someone was in, and (2) he or she has spoken out critically about the church, I'd be glad to read about it in a post here. I'd be happy to forward this to the WWP-thread about the big list, where Anonymous will decide if it is good enough to be included.

    So go ahead, make my day. :biggrin:

    Srsly though: I know lots of people more left the cult silently (for whatever reason) and simply never looked back. For correct stats, these of course also have to be counted. But by definition Anonymous doesn't know about them or at least doesn't have proof. You know what we say: DOX or STFU / GTFO. :thumbsup:
  5. degraded being

    degraded being Sponsor

    So it's like someone we know and trust told us there is a lovely big cake in the cupboard and it's really really delicious, but we want to intensify our cravings and therefore the pleasure we will have when we eat it, so we say "you kids haven't got any docs so we are not factoring in the cake data".
    Lips smacking. :giggle:
  6. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    I dont't know how to put the graph in. Could someone more computer savvy try? Thanks :)
  7. SignPost

    SignPost Patron with Honors

  8. degraded being

    degraded being Sponsor

    I read on a poster up on Tony Ortega's site, that in Britain there are more staff going up the bridge than at any other time. I wonder why. :yes:
  9. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    An update on WWP was posted.

    I'd be thankful if someone could copy the two images in the original post here.

    Emphasis at the end mine. :biggrin:
  10. Purple Rain

    Purple Rain Crusader

  11. Freeminds

    Freeminds Bitter defrocked apostate

    Bah. Bitter, defrocked apostates! On the fringes of the Internet, I tells ya!

    Seriously, though... Sweet. Has anybody thought to calculate the cult's half-life?
  12. Student of Trinity

    Student of Trinity Silver Meritorious Patron

    If this data is reliable it seems to show two things. The first is that there has been a steep surge in exits starting at around 2009; whether the surge is now over is not yet clear. The second is that Scientologists who are quitting have been getting steadily older, on average. What does that second point mean?

    It looks to me as though the average age at quitting has been going up at roughly one year per year, for about twenty years now. Why could this be happening?

    Well, one possibility would be that Scientology has been getting better and better at retaining its members for longer on average, either by actually keeping people happy for longer, or by tuning its recruitment to more efficiently target only those people who are less likely to quit within just a few years. People who join and then quit very soon bring down the average quitting age quite a lot. Cutting down on this fraction of the membership raises the average age of quitters.

    The other possibility is that the rate of new people joining Scientology has been declining, and so with every passing year the pool of remaining Scientologists becomes more dominated by people who joined up back when more people were still joining. If the average time-in of Scientologists has thus been going up, the average time-in at quitting would also tend to rise.

    The only explanation which doesn't leave the one-year-per-year rate as a funny coincidence is an extreme form of this second option:a lot of people joined Scientology in the mid 1980s, but hardly any new blood has come in since then. Every year a few more of that early-nineties cohort gets fed up and leaves. In 2005, most Scientology quitters had been in for twenty years, because most Scientologists had joined in 1985. In 2015 most quitters will have been in for 30 years ... because most Scientologists are still from the mass that joined in 1985.

    If this is true, there's no half-life to calculate. Scientology is just a bunch of people from the 80's. It's a dead cult walking.
  13. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    ^^ stats are based on the big list of exes speaking out. See my sig.

    Of course this is only a small portion of people leaving. Most never speak out, they just leave.
  14. Terril park

    Terril park Sponsor

    Here is a scale.




  15. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    You are forgetting "BIG DATA" :)
  16. Freeminds

    Freeminds Bitter defrocked apostate

    We know that it takes time to decompress after Hubbardism. Some people never fully recover from the Scientology mindf*ck. Speaking out, so as to end up on the Big List is seldom something people do right away. They're still cowed by all the lies about "eternity" and perhaps a belief in OSA still being an effective threat, etc.

    So 2014 isn't over yet, and there are also people who came out in 2012 or 2013 who might not have qualified for the Big List yet (ie not spoken out under their own name). There are a lot of reasons why the more recent years' data are incomplete. Which means the shrinkage of the Scientology / Nation of Islam cult is faster than it appears to be. I think. Granted, there might not be many people left by now, and some of them are hopelessly compromised and won't leave even when they've figure out the scam. Wally Hanks, for instance, or Jan Eastgate.

    I wouldn't wanna be one of the last few, stuck on the sinking ship with David 'Courtesy Flush' Miscavige for company. In fact, I think I'd rather drop the meat body than spend my life with somebody so screwed up.
  17. Student of Trinity

    Student of Trinity Silver Meritorious Patron

    I'd like to bump this because it's just struck me how important this would be, if it were true. It shouldn't be so hard to disprove it if it isn't. So it would really be worth trying to confirm or disprove it.

    Has Scientology really not grown significantly at all since the mid 1980s? Did almost all current Scientologists join in that era?

    If that were true, it would explain a lot of otherwise puzzling tactics on the part of cult management. Why the heavy shift into fund-raising from existing members, instead of delivery of services and training to new public? If recruiting had simply dried up, but a big pool of already-in members were steadily getting older, then they will already have taken most of the services, so there just won't be much market to serve. You can only go so far with forcing people to re-take stuff they've already taken. But as people get older they get more money. With an older membership, there's gold to extract.

    I've always had the idea that Scientology was well past its heyday, with people leaving and fewer new members joining. But what if there has really been no influx at all, at any significant level, for the past thirty years? I haven't had that thought until now. Could it really be true, though?
  18. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    "I'd rather have you dead than in Scientology." :biggrin:
  19. TrevAnon

    TrevAnon Big List researcher

    And I'm too lazy to find out how to copy the plot here :biggrin:
  20. Jump

    Jump Operating teatime

    This one?



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